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After months of anticipation, UFC 264 is just around the corner. Taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada, top of the bill is Connor McGreogor vs Dustin Poirier. Poirier vs McGregor 3 is not the only fight we have to look forward to either.
Other matches on the card include Tai Tuivasa vs Greg Gardt, Gilbert Burns vs Stephen Thompson and Niko Price vs Michel Pereira. Carlos Condit is widely expected to return to face Max Griffin as well. This is an exciting moment with Condit – a former Welterweight Championship winner – not competing at UFC pay-per-view since December 2018.
Overall, 10 fights have been confirmed in total, meaning there are plenty of markets open for UFC 264 betting, and fans are in for one hell of a night.
The question is, where can you find value? If you are struggling to choose your selections, never fear. Below we have previewed every fight, evaluating which matches are most likely to witness an upset.
Dustin Poirier vs Conor McGregor
Let’s start off with the big one: the third and final installment of the Poirier vs McGregor series. It does not get much bigger than this.
Each man has taken one fight beforehand. However, Poirier goes into it in better form, beating McGregor by TKO at UFC 257.
The bookies cannot seem to pick a favourite for the bout, so it is probably best to steer clear of the outright winners market. There could be value elsewhere but as for an upset, the odds are just too close.
Tai Tuivasa vs Greg Hardy
Tai Tuivasa represents the biggest test of Greg Hardy’s UFC career to date. The former NFL tight end has taken his transition to MMA seriously but even still few are expecting him to take down the more experienced Bam Bam.
We think Hardy could spring an upset, though. Defeating Maurice Greene was an impressive feat and he may have enough in his locker to go the distance.
Gilbert Burns vs Stephen Thompson
Gilbert Burns and Stephen Thompson will both be desperate to win this bout and strengthen their position at the top of the card.
Thompson goes into things as the slight favorite, thanks to back to back victories over Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal. Meanwhile, Burns will be hurting and eager to prove his worth after losing to Welterweight Champion Kamaru Usman last time out. A victory here would put him straight back in the title picture.
This one is tough to call and it is worth keeping tabs on Burns’ odds. If they go high enough, betting on him makes perfect sense.
Irene Aldana vs Yana Kunitskaya
Irene Aldana vs Yana Kunitskaya will have major ramifications in the Women’s Bantamweight division. Both fighters are in the hunt for Amanda Nunes’ title and whoever wins will be in a strong position to challenge soon.
The pair are evenly matched but Aldana is marginally fancied by most. Again, this will be a case of monitoring Kunitskaya’s odds closely nearer the time. There is so little to choose between the pair so it could be another good bet.
Sean O’Malley vs Louis Smolka
Sean O’Malley has impressed since joining UFC, winning five of his first six bouts. Many are tipping him as a potential star of the future. Louis Smolka, who made his UFC debut back in 2014, is not expected to halt O’Malley’s progress by many.
We cannot see it happening either, so this is perhaps a fight to avoid if you are looking to back an upset.
Niko Price vs Michel Pereira
As per Ranking MMA, Niko Price goes into his bout with Michel Pereira eight spots ahead of his opponent. Despite this, Pereira is an able fighter and Price has won just one of his last four fights.
Due to this, we think there is a decent chance of the Brazilian springing an upset.
Kevin Lee vs Sean Brady
After doing well in the lightweight division Kevin Lee is taking the step up to the welterweight class. His inaugural match competing at this heavier weight will be against Sean Brady.
Brady is undefeated in his professional MMA career, most recently beating Jake Matthews at UFC 259. This, as well as Lee’s inexperience as a welterweight, means he must be considered the favorite, although the odds are close. It is hard to find value in this one to be honest.
Omari Akhmedov vs Brad Taveres
The fight sees two aspirational middleweight fighters square off. Going into the bout the pair are separated by just one place in the UFC rankings. This closeness is also reflected in the bookmakers’ odds. Another one to avoid if you are looking for an upset we’re afraid!
Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs Jerome Rivera
Neither Zhalgas Zhumagulov nor Jerome Rivera have registered a UFC win yet. Zhumagulov goes into this as the slight favourite due to his experience but Rivera certainly has the potential to pull off an upset.
He remains somewhat of an unknown quantity and bookies could underestimate him when compiling odds.
Alen Amedovski vs Hu Yaozong
Alen Amedovski is finally making his full UFC debut after impressing on Fight Night. His opponent is Hu Yaozong who is seriously lacking experience at the top level. Amedovski will likely be priced as the overwhelming favorite, quite rightly as well.