If fight fans didn’t see Mackenzie Dern as a legitimate problem in the strawweight division before UFC on ABC 2 – Vettori vs. Holland, they do now. The 28-year-old Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist finished Nina Nunes via armbar in the closing stages of the first round. Prior to the fight, the 35-year-old ranked number five in the world, while Dern sat in the 11th spot. That has since changed, with the 28-year-old replacing Nunes in fifth. After defeating Nunes, a top-level competitor, fight fans are questioning just how far Dern can go at 115 pounds. So, let’s see if she’s got what it takes to become the champion.
Putting Together a Four-Fight Win Streak
Formerly the number-one ranked International Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Federation competitor, Dern has numerous gold medals to her name. As such, when the Arizona-born fighter first entered the UFC in March 2018, expectations were high. In her first bout, Dern faced off against Ashley Yoder. Despite being knocked down in the second round, she recovered to earn a split decision victory. Dern’s UFC performance wasn’t perfect, as it showed that both her striking and takedowns required work.
Victory over Yoder was followed by a first-round stoppage of Amanda Bobby Brundage before Amanda Ribas defeated Dern via unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night 161. The setback highlighted that the 28-year-old wasn’t going to submit her way to the title with superior Jui-Jitsu skills, although she did bounce back with a sub-three-minute kneebar win against Hannah Cifers eight months later.
Success against Cifers set up a tough match-up with Randa Markos, a one-time Provincial FC strawweight champion. Although the bout lasted less than four minutes, Dern’s striking appeared much improved. Her strike accuracy sat at 65 percent, while she connected with 69 percent of her significant shots. The 28-year-old continued to showcase her improved striking as she extended her unbeaten run to three fights, overcoming Virna Jandiroba via unanimous decision. The bout put Dern’s newfound focus on stand-up under the spotlight, as she threw 195 total strikes, 57 of which landed to the head. Her triumph over Nunes preceded this, putting her in contention for a top-contender fight next time around.
How Does She Compare with the 115-Pound Division’s Elite?
While it’s hard to judge Dern’s level from her dominant victory over Nunes, it’s worth noting that the 35-year-old has previously beaten well-known fighters, such as Angela Hill and the former 115-pound title challenger, Claudia Gadelha. However, Nunes spent almost two years out of the cage between defeats to Tatiana Suarez and Dern, meaning that she may have had ring rust.
At the time of writing, the strawweight champion, Zhang Weili, is scheduled to face Rose Namajunas at UFC 261 for the 115-pound belt. The contest will be the Chinese competitor’s second defense after a Fight of the Year victory over Joanna Jedrzejczyk in March 2020. As of April 14th, Thug Rose is the +150 underdog to win back her title.
In the future, Dern may have to compete against either Weili or Namajunas for the belt, assuming she continues to triumph in the Octagon. On paper, Thug Rose would be a more favorable match-up for the 28-year-old. Prior to Weili’s second defense, she boasts a takedown defense rate of 100 percent. The challenger, meanwhile, denies 50 percent of her opponent’s attempted takedowns. Moreover, Namajunas averages just under two takedowns per 15 minutes, which plays into Dern’s hands because of her superior submission game.
On the feet, however, Jedrzejczyk, Namajunas, and Weili have the advantage over Dern. Thus far in her career, the Jui-Jitsu expert has zero knockouts to her name. Although her striking is developing, it remains to be seen if she can match the top contenders’ pace and constant pressure. That said, because of her high-level ground game, Dern always has a clear path to victory against any 115-pound fighter.
It Would Be Unwise to Overlook Dern
It’s unlikely that Dern will ever be the cleanest striker or have the most knockout power in the strawweight division, but she’s a threat nonetheless. The Arizona-born fighter acknowledges that her stand-up game needs work, and she’s sought to make the requisite adjustments. Although a title fight may not be around the corner, she’s undoubtedly on course for a top-five bout in the near future.