At UFC Vegas 84, Magomed Ankalaev defeated Johnny Walker, Manel Kape lost his chance at a flyweight title shot, and Jim Miller continued to break UFC records, with the focus now shifting to UFC 297.
Hey there, pals!
So, UFC Vegas 84 is done and dusted. The first UFC event of the year. Magomed Ankalaev smashed Johnny Walker to bits. Manel Kape, well, he smashed his shot at the flyweight title. And Jim Miller? He’s still smashing UFC records. Let’s chat about all that. Plus, we’re on to UFC 297!
**Magomed Ankalaev**
A tweet popped up about Khamzat moving up to 205 to fight Magomed. Who would Kadyrov root for? Now, let’s sidestep the Kadyrov bait. He’s not exactly a saint, and it’s tricky to judge the fighters he backs. You know, he can make life pretty miserable for them if they don’t play along. So, let’s focus on Ankalaev.
For about three years, I’ve been pretty sure that Ankalaev is the best light heavyweight around. That was right after Dominick Reyes got ripped off against Jon Jones and then got knocked out by Jan Blachowicz. That’s when I thought, yeah, it’s probably Ank. But fate and Ankalaev’s own slip-ups have kept him from the title. I reckon this year that might *finally* change.
The light heavyweight title scene is a hot mess. Alex Pereira is the champ and deserves to be, but is he really the best light heavyweight out there? “Poatan” walks in the light, but there are a half dozen fighters who would be betting favorites over him. Same goes for Jamahal Hill. Hill looked amazing against Glover Teixeira, no doubt. But Glover is ancient, and that performance was so far from Hill’s usual that it’s hard to know if he was just on fire that night. Hill could easily be another Cody Garbrandt and fall off a cliff from here on out.
In contrast, Ankalaev is steady. Apart from a last-second Hail Mary submission loss to Paul Craig, Ankalaev has never lost. He’s been quietly stacking up good wins over top-ranked fighters for years. If anyone can bring stability to this weight class, it’s him. And with Pereira looking to fight soon, and Hill still sidelined with injury, it seems like he might get his chance. I expect Ankalaev to face Pereira in the main event of the rumored return to Brazil. Then he’ll start putting together a real run of title defenses in one of the sport’s marquee divisions.
Oh, and for what it’s worth, Khamzat is too small to succeed against Ankalaev.
**Manel Kape**
A tweet asked if Manel Kape’s weight miss foreshadows the year he’s gonna have. Well, he sure dropped the ball this weekend. On Thursday, news broke that Amir Albazi was out of his fight with Brandon Moreno and that Brandon Royval would be stepping in. That was a huge break for Kape, who now had the inside track for a title shot. All Kape needed to do was make weight, win the fight, and cut a promo. Then he’d be fighting for the belt against Pantoja, probably in the co-main event of the UFC Brazil card. Instead, he’s screwed.
This is Kape’s second weight miss and his second miss by *a lot*. That does not instill the powers that be confidence in your ability to make championship weight, and thus disincline them to book you in title fights. Moreover, now who knows where he goes next. He’ll have to fight and may well need two more wins before he’s back in the title picture. And given how often Kape fights fall apart (be it his fault or otherwise), two fights might take him four years.
It was a huge blunder by “Starboy” and he must be kicking himself right now.
**Jim Miller**
A tweet asked who I’d choose as an opponent for Jim Miller at UFC 300. And do I think he will reach 50 UFC fights? In the words of millennial candy commercials: There’s no wrong way to eat this Reese’s.
Jim Miller is awesome. He’s 40 and still scrapping his ass off in a weight class where fighters age like bread. Plus, he’s somehow become *more* exciting as he’s gotten older. Miller was never boring, but there was a big stretch of his “prime” career where he was a bit of a decision merchant. But the man is weapons-free the past few years and it’s been electric viewing. So, there’s almost no way to go wrong for UFC 300.
That said, if I had my druthers, the Paul Felder callout is a good one. I’d love it, not only because it’s a great fight but because it would get Felder back in the cage. He’s also an electric watch. But if Felder decides against it, Bobby Green would be my next choice. Just a scrap and a half. But even the Matt Brown fight is fine (though I’m less interested than many, I think). There’s just no wrong answer here as long as the opponent is a recognizable face.
As for the 50 fights, right now he’s got 43 UFC bouts under his belt. That’s more fights in the promotion than years alive, and I think there’s a pretty good chance he gets to 50. We know he’ll at least get to 44, but just look at his performance on Saturday. Did that look like a man close to hanging up the gloves? (Mike) Heck, I wouldn’t be surprised if he got to 60 fights. Jim Miller is a badass and he’s on his way to setting an unbreakable record. Enjoy it while you can.
**UFC 297**
A tweet asked how much the result of Saturday’s main event will set the tone for 2024. Does a Strickland defense mean more chaos? Does a DDP win bring stability? Or is it the other way around? Or will we have forgotten about this fight by April?
This Saturday, Sean Strickland defends his middleweight title against Dricus du Plessis in the main event of UFC 297. When the dust all settles, *I think* “DDP” will be the new champion, but either way, I’m *certain* that middleweight is about to get wacky.
Strickland upsetting Israel Adesanya set in motion the chaos factor for 185 pounds. This happens basically every time a long-reigning champion loses the title. (I know that Adesanya was not long-reigning at the time, but that’s splitting hairs.) Someone upsets the dominant champion, we wonder if he or she will now carry the mantle, instead that fighter loses pretty soon after and the belt swaps around for a bit until finally settling with the new champion. This is the circle of MMA titles, and middleweight is now about to experience it.
Has Sean Strickland leveled up and now he’s about to go on a title run? I guess it’s possible. That was an incredible performance against Adesanya. But I also saw him lose to Jared Cannonier 13 months ago.
Is Dricus du Plessis the next great middleweight champion, ready to physically dominant all who step in the cage with him now that he can breathe? Again, I guess it’s possible, but I saw him struggle aggressively with Darren Till just 13 months ago, and I’ve always thought Till was bad.
Both men who are fighting for the belt on Saturday have clear strengths, but they’ve also go blatant weaknesses and it seems like a stretch to assume that either has a long title reign in them. So instead of thinking about that, let’s just enjoy this for the chaotic mess that it is and sit back and revel in the show.
**Juliana Peña**
A tweet asked who I think Julianna Pena‘s rooting for in the co-main event. *In case you were unaware,* Raquel Pennington takes on Mayra Bueno Silva for the vacant women’s bantamweight title in the co-main event of UFC 297. Julianna Peña will face the winner later this year.
I assume Pennington. For one thing, Peña and Pennington have a long-standing beef that has never been settled. For another, Peña is no dummy, and Pennington is a *much* easier fight than “MBS.”
Don’t get me wrong, I’m a big supporter of “Rocky.” She’s a classic overachiever and those fighters always deserve a ton of credit. Pennington has undeniably made the most out of her talent — it’s just that there isn’t a wealth of it to work with. That’s why she’s consistently fallen short against the upper, upper echelon of fighters when she’s faced them. I’m not saying Peña is in that tier, but Peña is clearly the more talented fighter of the two.
MBS, on the other hand, is not just talented but also dangerous. Two-thirds of Pennington’s career wins have come by decision. Two of Bueno Silva’s 10 have come by decision. These two women are not alike. MBS comes to finish fights, and that will always be more dangerous than a decision merchant. It’s the difference between running and passing in football. Sure, you can win with ball control, grinding out four yards a carry and controlling the clock, but it’s a (Mike) Heck of a lot easier to get a 75-yard touchdown bomb.
Still, I’d probably pick either woman to beat Peña, purely on principle.
*Thanks for reading, and thank you for everyone who sent in Tweets (Xs?)! Do you have any burning questions about things at least somewhat related to combat sports? Then you’re in luck, because you can send your Tweets to me, @JedKMeshew, and I will answer my favorite ones! Doesn’t matter if they’re topical or insane, just so long as they are good. Thanks again and see y’all next week.*